NWS AFD During Critical Fire Event.
ONTARIO, CALIFORNIA
Find the word fire. You won't find it. Even when conditions were critical.
FXUS66 KSGX 270926 AAA
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
225 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS...THE VALLEYS AND LOWER DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERATE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS MORNING. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND A PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REPLACES THE HIGH.
&&
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY BELOW CANYONS BUT WILL STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE ON MONDAY...AND A COOLING TREND BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES. COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND BY TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE COOL CONDITIONS AND WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE A 3000 FT DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WED AND THU MORNINGS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...CAUSING A WARMING TREND AND A THINNER MARINE LAYER. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 7 DEG ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...270925Z
CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. WINDS SPEEDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE FROM 14Z-22Z.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE. HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SELECTED AIRPORTS TODAY:
KSAN...29C
KSNA...38C
KONT...38C
KPSP...39C
KCRQ...30C
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE
AVIATION...MOEDE
----------------------
FXUS66 KSGX 271526
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS...THE VALLEYS AND LOWER DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERATE GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL START AT THE COAST MONDAY THEN EXTEND TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND A PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REPLACES THE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
IT WAS MUCH WARMER THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE WARMER AIR MASS AND A BREEZY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN CALM SPOTS TEMPS DIPPED INTO THE 40S WHILE WINDIER SPOTS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S AT SUNRISE. THIS HEAD START WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY FILTER THE SUN SLIGHTLY. A FEW RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY. THE REASON FOR ALL THE HEAT IS MAINLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH PEAKS TODAY. ANOTHER COMPONENT IS THE EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW COMPRESSING AND WARMING THE AIR NEAR THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALSO PRODUCING WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH IN THE USUAL SPOTS LIKE BEAUMONT AND CAMPO. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK LATE THIS MORNING...BUT NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MON...AND A COOLING TREND BEGINS AT THE COAST WITH TEMPS AT THE BEACHES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THE COOLING TREND WILL SPREAD INLAND TUE AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN APPRECIABLY WITH CLOUDS FILLING THE COASTAL BASIN AND SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WED. TEMPS WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THU THROUGH SAT CAUSING A WARMING TREND AND A LESS EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
271400Z...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE FL250...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WITH ASSOCIATED UP AND DOWN DRAFTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEM OF THE DAY WITH HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. FOR MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AS THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SEA BREEZE RECOVERS. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SO DENSITY ALTITUDE SHOULD STILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KSAN...29C
KSNA...38C
KONT...38C
KPSP...39C.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...HORTON
---------------------------
FXUS66 KSGX 272046
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL START AT THE COAST MONDAY THEN EXTEND TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND A PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REPLACES THE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHER PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
THE STORY TODAY HAS BEEN THE TEMPERATURES AND SECONDARILY THE WINDS. AS OF 1 PM MOST OF ORANGE CO WAS IN THE 90S WITH FULLERTON LEADING THE WAY AT 100 DEGREES. AT HUNTINGTON BEACH WINDS WENT ONSHORE COOLING THEM TO A SHOCKING 68...BUT SOMEONE FORGOT TO TELL LOS ALAMITOS (JUST 9 MILES NORTH) BECAUSE THEY WERE STILL 97...AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT (JUST 7 MILES EAST) BECAUSE THEY WERE AT 99. OCEANSIDE WAS COOL AND CALM THIS MORNING AT 43 DEGREES BUT HAD GONE UP 55 DEGREES TO 98...BUT CARDIFF WAS TOPS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AT 101. AND THE LOW IN ONTARIO WAS 76. JUST TRY TO FORECAST THIS STUFF. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE RARE DAYS THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST HEATS UP MORE THAN INLAND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ALL THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE DESCENDING AIR IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE MTNS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL NOT STOP LOTS OF HIGH MAX TEMP RECORDS FROM FALLING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEVERAL HIGH MIN TEMP RECORDS WILL FALL AS WELL SINCE MANY LOCATIONS STAYED IN THE 70S MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SAN DIEGO HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THE RECORD OF 87 WITH 92 DEGREES AT 1 PM AND THE LIST IS MUCH LONGER. LOOK FOR THE RECORD REPORT BY 6 PM THIS EVE FOR DETAILS (LAXRERSGX).
WINDS HAVE GUSTED CLOSE TO 40 MPH AT BEAUMONT AND CAMPO DURING THE LATE MORNING...BUT WERE BEGINNING TO DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND STOP THIS EVE.
THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MON AND A COOLING TREND BEGINS AT THE COAST. THE COOLING TREND WILL SPREAD INLAND TUE AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PACIFIC NW. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS TUE AS A RESULT. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND SOME COASTAL FOG IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. THE COOLING TREND AND MTN AND DESERT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN APPRECIABLY WITH CLOUDS FILLING THE COASTAL BASIN AND SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WED. TEMPS WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THU THROUGH SAT CAUSING A WARMING TREND AND A LESS EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
272030Z...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE FL250...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOME RECOVERY OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED MONDAY ALONG THE COAST WHICH COULD BRING SOME FOG TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WITH ASSOCIATED UP AND DOWN DRAFTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NEAR THE COAST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT MOST OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS PEAKING DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SHOW LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVER TODAY. THIS MEANS DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM ON MONDAY FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AREA...
KSAN...27C
KSNA...31C
KONT...38C
KPSP...39C.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...HORTON
---------------------------
|
